ANC’s Dramatic Fall Ahead of November 4 Local Polls

The ANC faces its steepest decline yet as the July SRF/Common Sense poll shows the ruling party at just 34% nationally and collapsing to 18% in Johannesburg. With the DA surging, MK gaining ground, and coalition politics looming across metros from Tshwane to eThekwini, South Africa’s political map is shifting dramatically ahead of the November 4 local government elections.

The ANC in a freefall ahead of the 4 November local government poll

By CHRIS MAKHAYE

The ruling African National Congress (ANC) is staring down its most perilous local government election yet. The July 2026 poll — conducted by the Social Research Foundation (SRF), carried out by Victory Research, and published in collaboration with The Common Sense — places the party at just 34% nationally, its lowest level in decades, with urban voters turning away in droves.

Johannesburg: A City in Crisis

In Johannesburg, the ANC’s collapse is most dramatic. The poll shows the party languishing at 18%, while the Democratic Alliance (DA), buoyed by Helen Zille’s head-start on the campaign trail, has surged to 42%. The ANC has not even announced its mayoral candidate, leaving the impression of a party adrift.

The ANC-led municipality has lurched from one crisis to another — service delivery failures, financial mismanagement, and rolling leadership disputes. Meanwhile, the MK Party, despite a revolving door of leaders, has managed to carve out 13% support, feeding off disillusionment with the ANC. ActionSA and the EFF round out the field with 10% and 8% respectively, ensuring that coalition politics will again dominate Johannesburg’s future.

Lesedi Sibiya, a political analyst with Diplomatic Insider, reflected on the poll results with a stark assessment:  “The ANC’s 12-point drop in Johannesburg since March is unprecedented. What we are seeing is not just voter fatigue but a structural shift in urban politics. The DA and ActionSA together now command over half the city’s support, while the ANC, MK, and EFF combined are stuck below 40%. This is a realignment that could end ANC dominance in Gauteng metros.”

Tshwane and Ekurhuleni: DA Gains, ANC Slips

In Tshwane and Ekurhuleni, the DA has overtaken the ANC, polling around 37% to the ANC’s 31%. These metros, once ANC strongholds, now reflect the broader Gauteng trend: urban voters are shifting decisively toward opposition parties. Coalitions are inevitable, with ActionSA and the EFF holding modest but pivotal shares.

eThekwini: MK Party Reshapes the Landscape

In eThekwini, the ANC still leads at 39%, but the MK Party’s rise is unmistakable. With double-digit support, MK is eating into the ANC’s KwaZulu-Natal base, reshaping the city’s political dynamics. The DA trails at 28%, while the EFF and smaller parties remain influential enough to complicate coalition arithmetic.

Buffalo City and Mangaung: ANC Weakening

In Buffalo City, the ANC retains a majority but is visibly weaker than in past elections. The DA’s modest gains and MK’s entry into the race mean the ANC can no longer take the Eastern Cape for granted.

In Mangaung, the ANC’s dominance has eroded amid service delivery protests and governance failures. The DA and EFF have made inroads, while MK is beginning to test its appeal beyond KwaZulu-Natal.

A Party in Decline

The ANC’s trajectory is unmistakable:

2016: 54% nationally

2021: 45.6%

March 2026 poll: 39%

July 2026 poll: 34%

The DA, though not surging nationally, is consolidating its urban base. The MK Party has emerged as a disruptive force, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal, while the EFF and ActionSA continue to play kingmaker roles.

The Poll Ahead

With less than three months to go before the November 4 local government elections, the ANC faces the prospect of losing control of key metros and being forced into fragile coalitions. The DA, buoyed by Zille’s aggressive campaigning, is poised to lead in Gauteng’s urban centres. The MK Party, despite internal turmoil, is proving resilient.

South Africa’s political map is shifting — and for the ANC, the fall is dramatic, historic, and perhaps irreversible. TQ