Coalition Era Redefines South Africa’s Democracy

By ZAKHELE NDLOVU

South Africa’s entry into coalition governance represents a defining structural shift in its post-1994 democratic order. The country is now navigating “uncharted terrain” after decades of one-party dominance.

For nearly 30 years, the African National Congress (ANC) dominated electoral politics, routinely securing comfortable majorities that rendered opposition parties peripheral. Elections were less about who would govern and more about the extent of ANC control.

Coalition Politics Reshape South Africa’s Democratic Landscape

The ANC’s Electoral Slide

That political certainty began to erode in the 2016 local government elections, when the ANC lost key metros including Johannesburg, Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay which signalled the start of a broader electoral decline.

The 2024 general elections confirmed what had been building for years. The ANC’s support has fragmented significantly, making coalition governance inevitable rather than optional. The 2024 national polls outcome saw the ANC failing to secure an outright majority nationally and in provinces such as Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Northern Cape.

This forced the formation of a Government of National Unity (GNU).

Unlike the symbolic GNU of 1994 under Nelson Mandela, the current arrangement is constitutionally compelled. In 1994, the ANC chose inclusivity despite having a majority. Today, coalition is imposed by electoral arithmetic. A key driver of the ANC’s decline is internal fragmentation.

Breakaway parties led by figures such as Bantu Holomisa (UDM), Patrick Lekota (COPE), Julius Malema (EFF), and Jacob Zuma (MK Party) have steadily eroded the party’s voter base while reshaping the opposition landscape.

Post-election coalition negotiations in 2024 exposed both the complexity and risks of this new political era.

Opposition Realignment

Weeks of bargaining over cabinet positions and policy priorities highlighted what could be described as the “transactional nature” of coalition politics. South Africa was fortunate negotiations concluded within weeks comparatively faster than countries like Italy or Israel but the process revealed underlying tensions that have not disappeared.

The GNU initially projected cohesion, with parties such as the Democratic Alliance (DA) and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) aligning publicly with President Cyril Ramaphosa.

However, this early unity was “predictably temporary.”

By 2025, divisions emerged as the DA opposed key ANC-backed legislation, including the BELA, NHI and Expropriation bills. This highlighted deep ideological fault lines within the coalition.

The honeymoon phase was  over. What we are seeing now is the real test of whether coalition partners can balance cooperation with ideological identity. A central concern, is whether coalition partners can effectively hold one another accountable. While coalition theory suggests stronger oversight through shared power.

However proximity to power can dilute criticism.

One issue to take note of was the  expansion of the executive which comprises more than 30 ministers and almost a double number of deputies sometime two in one portfolio. This is where former critics within the GNU have grown noticeably muted. Parallel to the GNU, opposition politics is undergoing its own realignment.

The rise of MKP in KZN

The MK Party has emerged as a dominant opposition force, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal, where it commands significant electoral support despite being excluded from the provincial government of unity.

Alongside other parties, it has formed what is known as the Progressive Caucus, aimed at strengthening parliamentary oversight. However, the opposition remains fragmented.

 There are competing ambitions and ideological inconsistencies, especially around issues like constitutional reform and land policy. That weakens their collective ability to challenge the GNU effectively. KwaZulu-Natal remains a focal point of this volatility.

Despite the MK Party’s strong electoral showing, its exclusion from governance has fuelled political tension and speculation about future coalition instability. The province could see further realignments if current arrangements fail to deliver. South Africa’s experience with coalition governments at municipal level provides a sobering precedent.

Cities such as Johannesburg and Nelson Mandela Bay have been marked by instability, frequent leadership changes and governance gridlock. These patterns underscore the risks facing the GNU.

Coalitions built on weak agreements and deep ideological differences tend not to last. Ultimately, the success of South Africa’s coalition era will hinge on whether political leaders can prioritise governance over party interests.

Coalition politics requires compromise, discipline and a long-term view. Without that, instability becomes the default which is something South Africa can ill afford at this stage of its democracy. TQ

Zakhele Ndlovu is an independent political analyst and a lecturer of Political Science at the University of KwaZulu-Natal