“JOBURG: The Fight Is On”

By CHRIS MAKHAYE and MBULELO BALOYI

Since announcing her candidature for the the position of Joburg's First Lady, DA's Helen Zille has been on a campaign, partaking in a number of antics, speeches and visits aimed at drawing the attention of the voters.

JOHANNESBURG, Africa’s richest city is heading for another bruising electoral contest, but the real battle may not be at the ballot box. It will be in the backroom negotiations that follow.

With local government elections due between November 2026 and January 2027, parties are campaigning hard. Yet all signs point to a familiar outcome: no outright winner — and coalition politics once again deciding who governs Johannesburg.

A City Ruled by Deals

Over the past five years, Johannesburg has become the clearest example of coalition volatility in South Africa, cycling through at least five mayors as alliances formed and collapsed with dizzying speed.

The current ANC-led coalition — bringing together ActionSA, the EFF, the Patriotic Alliance, Al Jama-ah, the IFP and smaller parties — holds a fragile majority under embattled mayor Dada Morero. It is a government constantly negotiating its own survival. That fragility is not an anomaly; it is the new normal.

Kingmakers, Not Winners

Johannesburg’s political future will not be determined by who wins the most votes, but by who can assemble — and hold together — a governing majority.

Mid-sized parties are no longer outsiders. They are kingmakers. Herman Mashaba’s ActionSA continues to grow its footprint in southern Johannesburg and parts of Soweto, positioning itself as a pivotal player in any post-election arrangement. The EFF, Patriotic Alliance and smaller parties have similarly shown they can tip the balance of power — often extracting significant concessions in return.

For larger parties, this reality is unforgiving. The ANC’s internal divisions — laid bare by its Johannesburg regional leadership’s failed attempt to recall Morero, publicly overruled by secretary-general Fikile Mbalula — weaken its ability to negotiate from a position of strength. The DA, meanwhile, remains strong in the north but has yet to demonstrate that it can anchor a stable, multi-party government in the city.

A City in Two Worlds

Johannesburg remains a study in contrasts: the wealth of Sandton, Hyde Park and Houghton set against the daily struggles of Soweto, Alexandra and Diepsloot.

With a population exceeding five million and a municipal budget of about R85 billion, the metro is both South Africa’s economic engine and a barometer of its governance failures. Its crumbling infrastructure — underscored by disasters like the deadly underground gas explosion in the city centre — has turned basic service delivery into the central political question.

For voters, this election is less about ideology than about whether the lights stay on, taps run and roads hold.

The Numbers Game

Election analyst Wayne Sussman is blunt: no party is likely to secure a majority.

Instead, turnout in key strongholds will determine bargaining power in coalition talks. The ANC will rely on areas like Diepkloof, Alexandra and Diepsloot; the DA on Bryanston, Fourways and Northcliff; ActionSA on Protea Glen and the south; while the EFF, MK Party, PA and Al Jama-ah consolidate their own pockets of influence.

But these electoral maps are only the opening move. The endgame lies in coalition arithmetic.

Governance on a Knife-Edge

Johannesburg’s experience has shown that coalitions can just as easily paralyse as they can govern. Policy inconsistency, leadership changes and fragile agreements have slowed decision-making and eroded public trust.

The next administration will face the same test: can it build a coalition that lasts long enough to govern effectively? Or will the city remain trapped in cycles of political bargaining, where service delivery is secondary to survival?

The Real Contest

In Johannesburg, the election will choose councillors — but coalitions will choose the government.

The fight for Joburg is no longer just about winning votes. It is about mastering the art of coalition politics in a city where no one wins alone.

And until a stable formula emerges, the future of governance in South Africa’s economic heart will continue to be decided not by decisive mandates — but by delicate deals.

Joburg's embattled Mayor Dada Morero

SIDE BAR

GRIDLOCK LOOMS IN JOBURG

CITY HEADED FOR COALITION GRIDLOCK

NO OUTRIGHT WINNER   Recent Ipsos and SRF polling shows no party reaching 50% in Johannesburg.

ANC STILL LARGEST, BUT WEAKENED   Support sits in the mid-30% range — declining but not collapsing.

DA RISING, BUT CAPPED   Urban support grows, yet still far from governing alone.

KINGMAKERS HOLD THE CARDS   EFF, ActionSA, Patriotic Alliance and smaller parties likely to decide power through coalitions.

VOTER MOOD VOLATILE

• ~75% link ANC to “broken promises”

• Only ~10% say SA is on the right track

• ~47% feel unrepresented

FRAGMENTATION DEFINES THE RACE   Voters want change — but are split on who should deliver it.

THREE-BLOC CONTEST EMERGING

• DA-led urban opposition (strong but limited growth ceiling)

• ANC + allies (declining but rooted base)

• Disruptors (ActionSA, EFF, smaller parties) as decisive brokers

COALITION ERA ENTRENCHED   No party likely to reach majority. Governance dependent on multi-party deals.

RISKS AHEAD   Instability, mayoral churn and policy paralysis loom large.

ZILLE EFFECT LIMITED   Helen Zille boosts DA turnout — but not enough to break its ceiling.

BOTTOM LINE   The real battle in Johannesburg is not who wins the vote — but who can assemble a workable coalition afterward.