Race to 2026 Polls

By CHRIS MAKHAYE

As soon as President Cyril Ramaphosa announced that South Africans will head to the polls on Wednesday, 4 November 2026, the country’s restless social media community erupted. Within minutes, timelines filled with sharp commentary, biting humour and weary cynicism.

One viral post quipped: “If they fix the potholes before November, I’ll vote twice — once for the road, once for the party.” Another joked: “Electricity cuts are so bad, I’ll take my ballot to Eskom and hope they can power it up.”

The announcement was more than a date; it was the starting gun for a bruising campaign season.

The most closely contested metros in the upcoming 2026 local government elections are Johannesburg, Tshwane (Pretoria), Ekurhuleni, eThekwini (Durban), and Nelson Mandela Bay (Port Elizabeth). Latest opinion polls show the ANC struggling to hold ground in these cities, with the DA leading in Johannesburg and Tshwane, the ANC facing a wipeout in eThekwini, and Nelson Mandela Bay remaining a knife-edge contest. Smaller parties like ActionSA, the EFF, Patriotic Alliance, and MK Party are expected to play kingmaker roles in coalition governments

The Battle for the Metros

In Durban’s eThekwini, the ANC faces mounting pressure over water shortages and crumbling infrastructure. Opposition parties sense opportunity, with the MK Party – which will be contesting the local government elections for the first time – expected to be the biggest gainer, while the IFP and EFF also expected to make gains. KwaZulu-Natal, meanwhile, remains volatile. Political killings and intimidation continue to cast a shadow over the province, even as the IFP regains ground in rural areas and the MK Party unsettles the ANC’s traditional bases.

By contrast, Cape Town looks set to remain firmly in DA hands, while Mangaung and Buffalo City are considered safe for the ANC. These “safe havens” provide stability against the backdrop of contested battlegrounds.

Joburg on the Edge

It is Johannesburg, however, that looms largest. Election analyst Wayne Sussman recently told The Quest that the race will be fought between Helen Zille, Herman Mashaba and the ANC’s candidate. But he cautioned that no party is likely to secure an outright majority, making another coalition government almost inevitable. “Turnout will be decisive,” Sussman said. “Participation has declined, but those who do vote are motivated by promises to fix water, electricity and infrastructure.”

Sussman mapped out the city’s battlegrounds with precision. Diepkloof, Alexandra, Tshepisong and Diepsloot remain crucial bases for the ANC. Bryanston, Linksfield, Blairgowrie, Fourways and Northcliff are reliable territory for the DA. ActionSA’s strength lies in Protea Glen, Meredale, Glen Vista and Countryview, while the EFF is expected to mobilize in Orange Farm, Ivory Park, Rabie Ridge and Braamfontein. The MK Party is targeting Alexandra, Yeoville, Berea, Meadowlands, Jabulani and Orlando West. The Patriotic Alliance has footholds in Eldorado Park and Riverlea, while Al Jama‑ah’s support is concentrated in Lenasia.

“These battlegrounds and strongholds will determine the outcome,” Sussman told The Quest. “The major parties must ensure their voters show up in their bases. Without that, even the strongest candidates will struggle.”

Prominent voices joined the online debate. Former Public Protector Thuli Madonsela tweeted that the elections must be “about restoring trust in local government, not just winning seats.” Business leader Sipho Pityana warned on Facebook that “coalition chaos has crippled Johannesburg before — voters must demand stability this time.” Ordinary citizens, meanwhile, injected humour into the debate. A TikTok skit showing a voter dodging puddles in a pothole-filled street under the caption “My daily commute to democracy” drew thousands of likes.

President Ramaphosa himself stressed online that turnout, especially among young people, will be critical: “The race has started. Our task is to increase voter turnout, to get as many people as possible, especially young people, to come out, register and vote.” TQ