Will MKP Take eThekwini?
- Culture Soul
- Apr 17
- 4 min read
The Quest’s MBULELO BALOYI explores possible scenarios ahead of the forthcoming municipal polls
The future governance of eThekwini Municipality is increasingly defined by one word: uncertainty.
What was once a relatively stable African National Congress (ANC) stronghold is now a fluid, competitive battleground shaped by coalition fragility and the disruptive rise of the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP).
At the centre of this shift lies a critical question ahead of the next municipal elections: can the MKP convert its 2024 momentum—seen dramatically in places like Ward 93—into sustained control of the metro, or will governance remain trapped in unstable coalitions?
The 2024 Shock: Cracks in the ANC Fortress
The 2024 national and provincial elections fundamentally altered KwaZulu-Natal’s political landscape. The MKP, backed by and led by former ANC President Jacob Zuma, surged to 45.35% of the vote, while the ANC collapsed to 16.99%. The Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) secured 18.07%, the Democratic Alliance (DA) 13.36%, and the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) 2.26%. The IFP, ANC, DA and NFP now govern KwaZulu-Natal in coalition they term government of provincial unity, while the MK Party and EFF sit in opposition.
More significantly for eThekwini, long-standing ANC strongholds—townships and peri-urban zones that had reliably delivered majorities—flipped to the MKP in large numbers. Ward 93 became symbolic of this shift: a demonstration that even deeply embedded ANC voting blocs were no longer secure. The MKP’s appeal drew heavily from disillusioned ANC voters rather than opposition converts, making it a direct internal threat to the governing party.
From Surge to Structure: Can MKP Consolidate?
The key issue now is whether the MKP’s breakthrough was a once-off protest vote or the beginning of a durable political realignment. The party has continued to win or strongly contest by-elections, including gaining representation inside eThekwini council (Ward 110). Analysts note its growth is primarily at the expense of the ANC. Yet in some subsequent contests, the MKP has struggled to replicate its 2024 peak performance consistently. As a relatively new organisation formed in 2023, it still faces structural and organisational growing pains. This suggests the MKP is strong as a political wave—but still consolidating as a governing machine.
The Coalition Trap in eThekwini
Even before the MKP surge, eThekwini governance had already become fragile. No party has comfortably dominated council politics in recent cycles. Nationally, the ANC has lost its outright majority for the first time since 1994, ushering in coalition politics across multiple spheres. KwaZulu-Natal itself is now governed by a coalition led by the MKP and IFP, not a single-party majority. For eThekwini, this points to a likely scenario: even if the MKP makes further inroads, it may not win outright control—forcing it into coalition bargaining. And here lies the paradox: the MKP’s support base is partly driven by rejection of coalition-style governance, especially ANC alliances, yet electoral maths suggests coalitions will be unavoidable.
Three Possible Futures for eThekwini
If the MKP successfully consolidates township support and improves turnout, it could emerge as the largest party in council, leading a coalition or minority government. But limited governance experience and internal cohesion challenges remain. More likely is a fragmented council, with votes split between ANC, MKP, IFP, DA and smaller parties, producing unstable coalitions, policy paralysis, and service delivery decline. A third scenario is ANC recovery: if the party stabilises its base and exploits MKP organisational weaknesses, it could regain plurality but remain dependent on partners.
The Ward 93 Lesson: A Warning Shot
Ward 93’s 2024 outcome was not just a local upset—it was a signal of voter realignment. It showed that identity, history, and liberation loyalty are no longer guaranteed votes for the ANC. It confirmed that the MKP can penetrate deep into township strongholds. And it highlighted the growing role of protest voting driven by frustration over service delivery, unemployment, and governance failures.
The Bottom Line
The future of governance in eThekwini is unlikely to return to single-party dominance anytime soon. Instead, the Metropole is entering a prolonged era of competitive instability, where the ANC is weakened but not irrelevant, the MKP is powerful but not yet fully institutionalised, and smaller parties remain kingmakers. The real story is not simply whether the MKP will take over—it is whether any party will be able to govern decisively at all. And unless one breaks clearly above the rest, eThekwini may find itself governed not by mandate, but by negotiation, brinkmanship, and shifting alliances. TQ
Sidebar
eThekwini at a Crossroads — Coalition Drift or MKP Surge?
2024 turning point (May, national & provincial polls): MKP surges to 45.35% in KwaZulu-Natal; ANC collapses to 16.99%
Strongholds breached: Township and peri-urban ANC bases flip — Ward 93 becomes the defining symbol
Internal revolt: MKP draws mainly from disillusioned ANC voters, not traditional opposition
Momentum vs structure: Gains in by-elections and council seats (e.g. Ward 110), but inconsistent performance and organisational growing pains
Coalition era entrenched: KwaZulu-Natal now governed by the Inkathe Freedom Party (MKP + IFP coalition; ANC, DA, EFF in opposition
MKP paradox: Rides anti-coalition sentiment, yet may be forced into coalition deals to govern
Three scenarios ahead: MKP breakthrough; fragmented council (most likely); ANC recovery
Ward 93 lesson: Liberation loyalty no longer guarantees votes; protest voting rising over service delivery failures and unemployment
Bottom line: No return to single-party dominance; ANC weakened, MKP ascending but untested; smaller parties as kingmakers. TQ
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